Equation for epidemic spread with quarantine measures: application to COVID-19

Beitrag zur Diskussion in der Leibniz-Sozietät

 The appearance of a new virus in China at the end of 2019 has been recognized by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a pandemic in March 11, 2020. This virus named SARS-CoV-2 (causing COVID-19 disease) to the moment infected 50 millions of people and more than 1 million of deaths over the world. High mortality required  introduction of essential quarantine measures to confront pandemic and to reduce victims. At the same time, the strong quarantine measures lead to the serious damage to the global economy.

Soon for a year now, the world has been living in a completely new regime, trying to minimize the victims of the epidemic, economic damage and manifestations in a number of countries of overt or covert protests associated with different attitudes towards the problem in different layers of society. This situation can be called the New Covid Reality (NCR), so deeply and everywhere it changed people’s life.

At the same time, the NCR will certainly accelerate the development of new methods in medicine, biology, education, business and will lead, hopefully, to a new, more realistic, adequate and humanistic understanding and solution of political problems.